WWNCD? (What Would Ned Colletti Do?)

Dolla Dolla Bill Y'All

So this whole divorce thing is going to turn into a pisser, that’s for sure.  With a fair chunk of change committed for 2010 but then almost nothing beyond (how good is this website, by the way?) the Dodgers would seem to be positioned perfectly to make a run at some serious talent and continuing their perch atop the NL West.  We’re looking at a delta of about $50MM in payroll from last year to next coming off the books (good bye, Jason Schmidt, it’s been real) but thanks to the McCourts’ troubles and a slew of arbitration eligible players we’re sadly not going to be able to cash in on many/any top tier Free Agents.  Let’s break down the Arb cases and take a look at what we’d like to see Ned do on the market:

The No Brainer Payouts:

• Kemp–Ethier got a bump last year from the minimum to $3.1M, so figure the same for Kemp
• Ethier–Does he double his current salary and make $6M+?
• Billingsley–The wobbly second half probably keeps him affordable at $4
• Broxton–Figure another $3 here

The Enigmas:

• Russ Mart–LA signed him to a ~$4M deal before last year, figure $5 large here
• Loney–While the power numbers aren’t there the RBI are and those will be worth a cool $3M

Relievers:

• Kuo–$1MM
• Sherrill–?  Do they keep him even?  No clue what they’ll want to do here

After chalking those up we’re looking at about another $20MM in overhead and without the deep pockets coming through we can’t even look at a Holliday or Lackey type of impact signing (not that Holliday fits in anywhere, I’m just saying) which means we’ve got to look at the bargain bin and see what turns up.  My three favorite arms on the market (not counting Wolf, who will be missed) are the incredibly injury prone troika of Ben Sheets, Rich Harden and Erik Bedard.  While signing one (or more) question mark is not a recipe for success for a team currently boasting about three-fifths of a rotation, I can’t help but think that Sheets, who has now had a full year off, could be had for something like 3 years-$27MM or thereabouts.  Bedard has always been a favorite of mine and is coming off a season where he was the dreaded effective-when-healthy in a good pitcher’s park with a good outfield behind him.  The Dodger D is a step below that of the Mariners but still not too shabby and anything lost there would be made up by the transition to the AAAA National League.  So let’s ink him too…4 years-$52MM?  That get it done?  And there we have it.  We still don’t have a real second baseman so hopefully Blake DeWitt can avoid embarrassing himself and keep it real at the keystone and hold down the 8th slot.  And then we win the World Series.  Easy enough, right?