NLCS Preview

The most important that you can do today is to start setting the stage for whatever sickness you’re going to come down with Friday afternoon so you can catch the Dodger-Phils game at 1:00 PST. Sure, food poisoning is always an option but I feel like there’s no drama in that. I prefer something a little more elaborate—maybe start some coughing and sniffling this afternoon followed by some complaints and red eyes tomorrow…by Thursday you should be fake sneezing and clearing your throat non-stop. At this point your cubicle mates will be begging you to stay home on Friday, so you might as well oblige. Me? I’d initially planned on driving to Vegas this weekend to try and register some voters for Barack Obama but since Obama’s numbers are looking good at the moment and I’ve been following the Dodgers for 28 more years than I’ve been following Obama I’m giving LA the nod here.

While the media was quick to point out the Dodgers had dropped the season series to the Cubs prior to the start of the NLDS, anybody with half a brain could have pieced together that the Dodger team the Cubs saw had neither Raffy, Manny nor C. Blake, rendering any and all comparisons completely moot. The Phillies, on the other hand, have seen this post-Manny/Blake Dodger team extensively (a shocking 8 games between the two clubs in the second half) resulting in a pair of exceedingly rare 4 game home-and-home sweeps.

In a lot of ways this series looks to be a pick ’em—conventional wisdom (and the numbers) say the Dodgers have a deeper staff and the Phillies have a more explosive offense. One big difference between this series and the Dodgers-Cubs games is the presence of lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Philly line-up. Utley hits lefties pretty well (.277/.368/.519) but Howard morphs from Juan Gonzalez circa 1998 to Juan Pierre circa now versus lefties (.224/.294/.451), making Kuo’s status for this series much, much more important. Utley and Howard make an absolutely terrifying right side of the infield and have been a contrast of opposites this season, with Utley having a lights-out first half before fading down the stretch (only 8 HR in the second-half) while Howard couldn’t hit the barn-side-of-a-broad as my dad would say for the first several months of the season before catching fire and establishing himself as an MVP candidate from July on. Ohandbytheway, the Phils also have the defending NL MVP and Pat the Bat lurking. Oh, and also Shane Victorino and Jason Werth (who MURDERS lefties) in the outfield who are no slouches either. For all of the Phillies offensive firepower (they were second in the NL in runs scored) they have a tendency to go ice-cold for extended periods, mostly because they have guys that good pitchers can get out. Ryan Howard has some enormous holes in his swing and Pat Burrell is basically the Carlos Zambrano of hitters—he’ll carry on offense for a few weeks and then hibernate for a month. The Phils will undoubtedly mash mid-level pitching but good arms can beat them and the Dodgers have some of the hottest hands in the bigs. John Kruk gave the nod to the Dodgers in the series due to their pitchers abilities to keep the ball down and minimize home runs…sadly Peter Gammons is on record saying the Phils are great low-ball hitters, so make of that what you will.

From the pitching standpoint the Dodgers should have a slight edge. The trio of Lowe, Billingsley and Kuroda went 2-1 against the Phils this year, with Billingsley suffering the lone loss. Kuroda was stellar, tallying 12 Ks in 13 IP, allowing only a .095 BAA. Kershaw is a wildcard here, MLB.com is reporting the Dodgers may give him the ball in Game 4 which may not be a bad idea—in addition to Howard’s struggles, Kershaw would also force Rollins to turn around and bat right handed, where he is slightly less effective. The Philly rotation isn’t as well rounded as the Dodgers’ but in an extended series you’re guaranteed to see Cole Hammels at least twice, which is not an appealing prospect. Hammels beat the Dodgers already once this year, allowing only 4 runs over 2 starts and 14 innings while striking out 12. Hammels is a flat out beast and is money in the bank for the Phils, as he straight dominated the Brewers in Game 1 of the NLDS. Brett Myers is a headcase—every bit as erratic as Carlos Zambrano but I could see him getting the Philly fans at the Bank behind him and sacking it up Friday afternoon. And speaking of Friday afternoon—Myers has an ERA of over 5.50 on over 6 days of rest and an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00 during day games. I’m just saying.

So how will it play out? I think the Dodgers are at an advantage starting out on the road actually. With just a split of the series they go back to LA feeling good about themselves throwing Kuroda in game three at home, yeah? I vote for yeah. Dodgers in six.